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Publications

On this page we provide information about publications from the Institute. Our scientists publish their research results both in the Institute's publication series and in external media.

New Publications
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Other Articles

Copper as an early indicator of economic development in Germany?

Lea Bernhardt, Ivan Sergio (2025),
Wirtschaftsdienst 105(8), 607–608.
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HWWI Studies

Bremen's Boom or Bust? On the Impact of U.S. Tariff Policy on Bremen’s Economy

Michael Berlemann, Stephen Sacht (2025),
HWWI Studies, No. 5, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
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Refereed Articles

Tracking Chinese aid through China Customs

Andreas Fuchs, Lennart Kaplan, Krisztina Kis-Katos, Sebastian Leue, Felix Turbanisch, Feicheng Wang (2025),
World Development 195.
External Publications
white and black striped textile
Other Articles

Copper as an early indicator of economic development in Germany?

Lea Bernhardt, Ivan Sergio (2025),
Wirtschaftsdienst 105(8), 607–608.

This paper examines whether copper imports anticipate economic developments in Germany. A comparison with business expectations shows that firms tend to increase copper orders when anticipating rising demand. Copper prices and GDP also correlate positively with a delay of 1–3 quarters, reaching 0.296 after two quarters. Yet, large business climate…
A group of people walking down a street next to a pile of boxes
Refereed Articles

Tracking Chinese aid through China Customs

Andreas Fuchs, Lennart Kaplan, Krisztina Kis-Katos, Sebastian Leue, Felix Turbanisch, Feicheng Wang (2025),
World Development 195.

China’s response to global challenges, including efforts to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, has been widely discussed. However, the dearth of official Chinese data on its global development activities has complicated empirical assessments. This article introduces a systematic way to measure China’s foreign aid through official customs records…
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Working Papers

Melting Opportunities: Technological Change and Labor Market Perspectives

Erik Haustein (2025),
SSRN , Helmut Schmidt Universität / HWWI.

This paper examines the spread of electric refrigerators in U.S. households as a technological shock that replaced manual labor in ice retailing during the 1930s. Households initially used iceboxes for refrigerated food preservation, requiring regular replenishment of ice blocks and delivery by iceman. With the advent of electric refrigeration, such…
All External Publications
Internal Publications
a button with the american flag on top of a one dollar bill
HWWI Studies

Bremen's Boom or Bust? On the Impact of U.S. Tariff Policy on Bremen’s Economy

Michael Berlemann, Stephen Sacht (2025),
HWWI Studies, No. 5, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.

The present study examines the question of how the tariff measures of the Trump administration are likely to affect Bremen’s economy, particularly its car sector. The erratic policies under Donald Trump’s second administration make it difficult to anticipate the future direction of U.S. trade policy. The U.S. tariff regime assumed…
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HWWI Forecasts

HWWI Konjunkturprognose Deutschland, Sommer 2025

Michael Berlemann, Jörg Hinze (2025),
HWWI Forecasts, No. 2/2025, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.

The German economy grew surprisingly significantly in the first quarter of this year, by 0.4%. As some one-off effects favoured this development, the second quarter is likely to be weaker. In the meantime, a new government is in office. The Union had announced comprehensive economic reforms. However, it remains to…
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HWWI Working Papers

Moment Matching for Bayesian Inference in the Baseline New–Keynesian Model

Stephen Sacht, Tae-Seok Jang (2025),
HWWI Working Papers No. 4, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.

Contrary to claims in studies on financial economics, a sparse database often obscures the identification of parameters in macroeconomic models. These identification problems originate from the poorly defined mapping between a structural model and reduced-form parameters. Hence, researchers rely on prominent estimation methods, such as Bayesian approaches, which require sound…
All Internal Publications
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