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05.03.2024 | Press Release 7

New HWWI Business Cycle Forecast

Following a 0.3 % decline in real gross domestic product in 2023, the Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) expects only limited recovery potential for the German economy in 2024 and 2025. In view of the difficult start to the year and the resulting depressed starting level, economic growth of only ¼ % on average is expected for 2024, even with a moderate economic upturn over the remainder of the year. However, even this assumes that the geopolitical conflicts do not escalate further. And even then, given the structural problems in Germany, real gross domestic product is only expected to increase by 1 % in 2025. “Against the backdrop of the worsening labor shortage, the potential for future growth will remain limited beyond 2025,” says Prof. Dr. Michael Berlemann, Scientific Director of the HWWI. In his opinion, the greatest opportunities for easing this restriction lie in digitalization, the increased use of artificial intelligence and the automation of activities, both in the corporate sector and in public administration.


assorted food in socks
14.02.2024 | Press Release 6

HWWI-Commodity Price Index continues to decrease

Commodity prices have fallen sharply since their peak in summer 2022 (see figure). From its peak in August 2022, when the index stood at almost 400, the HWWI-Commodity Price Index halved by the beginning of 2023. Since then, it has fluctuated around a value of 175. After commodity prices rose again in autumn last year, they have fallen noticeably in the last three months. A particularly sharp decline was observed in December 2023, when the index fell by as much as 6.5 % compared to the previous month. In January 2024, the HWWI-Commodity Price Index averaged 170.84 (as at 9 February 2024).


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