According to initial data from the Federal Statistical Office, the German economy started 2024 with a small plus, but the initial situation has not fundamentally changed as a result. On the one hand, the Federal Statistical Office has revised the fourth quarter of 2023 and thus the “statistical overhang” downwards, and on the other hand, the increase in the first quarter is not least due to a weather-favoured increase in the construction industry, which is actually crisis-ridden. In view of the structural problems that have not yet been resolved, the Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) therefore expects only a moderate upturn for the German economy in 2024 and 2025 and economic growth of only 1/4% and 1% on average.

Following a 0.3 % decline in real gross domestic product in 2023, the Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) expects only limited recovery potential for the German economy in 2024 and 2025. In view of the difficult start to the year and the resulting depressed starting level, economic growth of only ¼ % on average is expected for 2024, even with a moderate economic upturn over the remainder of the year. However, even this assumes that the geopolitical conflicts do not escalate further. And even then, given the structural problems in Germany, real gross domestic product is only expected to increase by 1 % in 2025. “Against the backdrop of the worsening labor shortage, the potential for future growth will remain limited beyond 2025,” says Prof. Dr. Michael Berlemann, Scientific Director of the HWWI. In his opinion, the greatest opportunities for easing this restriction lie in digitalization, the increased use of artificial intelligence and the automation of activities, both in the corporate sector and in public administration.