Following a 0.3 % decline in real gross domestic product in 2023, the Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) expects only limited recovery potential for the German economy in 2024 and 2025. In view of the difficult start to the year and the resulting depressed starting level, economic growth of only ¼ % on average is expected for 2024, even with a moderate economic upturn over the remainder of the year. However, even this assumes that the geopolitical conflicts do not escalate further. And even then, given the structural problems in Germany, real gross domestic product is only expected to increase by 1 % in 2025. “Against the backdrop of the worsening labor shortage, the potential for future growth will remain limited beyond 2025,” says Prof. Dr. Michael Berlemann, Scientific Director of the HWWI. In his opinion, the greatest opportunities for easing this restriction lie in digitalization, the increased use of artificial intelligence and the automation of activities, both in the corporate sector and in public administration.

The Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) has raised its economic forecast for the current year by 0.2 percentage points, while lowering its forecast for the coming year by half a percentage point. The institute expects a slight recovery in 2025.