10.06.2024|HWWI Economic Policy Forum

Populismus: Was sind die wirtschaftlichen Konsequenzen?

Little research has been done into the economic costs of populism. Does it make a difference to a country whether a populist is in power? How does the economy develop when populists come to power? Answers to these questions can be found in a comprehensive new research paper published by Prof. Dr. Trebesch and his... Read more

Little research has been done into the economic costs of populism. Does it make a difference to a country whether a populist is in power? How does the economy develop when populists come to power? Answers to these questions can be found in a comprehensive new research paper published by Prof. Dr. Trebesch and his co-authors in the prestigious journal American Economic Review, which our speaker will present.

 

02.05.2024|New Publication in Macroeconomic Dynamics

Is the Hamilton regression filter really superior to Hodrick–Prescott detrending?

In a 2018 article, J.D. Hamilton introduced a method for trend elimination called the Hamilton Regression Filter (HRF). This was interpreted as a proposal to replace the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter with HRF. In our study, we take a critical look at Hamilton’s view. For this... Read more

In a 2018 article, J.D. Hamilton introduced a method for trend elimination called the Hamilton Regression Filter (HRF). This was interpreted as a proposal to replace the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter with HRF. In our study, we take a critical look at Hamilton’s view. For this purpose, we generate a large amount of artificial data, which show known patterns and contain both a trend and a cyclical component. The aim is to identify and assess the effectiveness of both (competing) trend adjustment approaches with respect to the actual decomposition of the data. By applying three novel statistical measures, it is shown that the two versions of the HP filter presented in this paper significantly outperform the HRF.

 

16.04.2024|HWWI Research Colloquium

Uncertainty Shocks and Inflation: The Role of Credibility and Expectation Anchoring

Prof. Dr. Robert Czudaj from the TU Freiberg was our guest in Hamburg as part of the HWWI research colloquium. In his lecture, he presented his research findings on the effects of uncertainty regarding a credible monetary policy on consumer price inflation.

Prof. Dr. Robert Czudaj from the TU Freiberg was our guest in Hamburg as part of the HWWI research colloquium. In his lecture, he presented his research findings on the effects of uncertainty regarding a credible monetary policy on consumer price inflation.

16.04.2024|New publication in Wirtschaftsdienst

Gemischte Signale am Arbeitsmarkt

Despite challenges such as the war in Ukraine, rising energy prices and persistently high inflation rates, the German labor market has proven to be relatively robust over the past two years. The fight against inflation by the European Central Bank (ECB) is currently shaping economic... Read more

Despite challenges such as the war in Ukraine, rising energy prices and persistently high inflation rates, the German labor market has proven to be relatively robust over the past two years. The fight against inflation by the European Central Bank (ECB) is currently shaping economic activity. At 2.2%, the inflation rate in March 2024 is expected to be close to the ECB’s target value of 2% (Federal Statistical Office, 2024). However, economic and political uncertainties are clouding Germany’s growth prospects. Only low economic growth of 0.25% is expected for 2024, underlining the subdued economic outlook (Hamburg Institute of International Economics, 2024).

11.04.2024|HWWI Job Offer

Ph.D. position in the research area Business Cycle & Growth

To complement our team, we are looking for a Ph.D. student for the Business Cycle & Growth research area with immediate effect. We look forward to receiving your application. For more information, see open positions.

To complement our team, we are looking for a Ph.D. student for the Business Cycle & Growth research area with immediate effect. We look forward to receiving your application. For more information, see open positions.

02.04.2024|HWWI Job Offer

PostDoc position in the research area Business Cycle & Growth

To complement our team, we are looking for a PostDoc for the Business Cycle & Growth research area with immediate effect. We look forward to receiving your application. For more information, see open positions.

To complement our team, we are looking for a PostDoc for the Business Cycle & Growth research area with immediate effect. We look forward to receiving your application. For more information, see open positions.

05.04.2024|News from the Institute

Dr. Joel Methorst leaves HWWI

At the end of March, Dr. Joel Methorst left us for a new employer in Frankfurt for family reasons, much to our regret. We wish him all the best and will remain in close contact with him in the future.

At the end of March, Dr. Joel Methorst left us for a new employer in Frankfurt for family reasons, much to our regret. We wish him all the best and will remain in close contact with him in the future.

06.03.2024|HWWI Economic Policy Forum

German electricity market

At the first event of the HWWI Forum of Economic Policy this year, Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel presented his analysis of the German electricity market. Once again, the event took place on the premises of the Hamburg Chamber of Commerce, and this time it was... Read more

At the first event of the HWWI Forum of Economic Policy this year, Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel presented his analysis of the German electricity market. Once again, the event took place on the premises of the Hamburg Chamber of Commerce, and this time it was also attended by numerous interested listeners from politics, science, business and the public.

05.03.2024|HWWI Forecast

New HWWI Business Cycle Forecast

Following a 0.3 % decline in real gross domestic product in 2023, the Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) expects only limited recovery potential for the German economy in 2024 and 2025. In view of the difficult start to the year and the resulting depressed... Read more

Following a 0.3 % decline in real gross domestic product in 2023, the Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) expects only limited recovery potential for the German economy in 2024 and 2025. In view of the difficult start to the year and the resulting depressed starting level, economic growth of only ¼ % on average is expected for 2024, even with a moderate economic upturn over the remainder of the year. However, even this assumes that the geopolitical conflicts do not escalate further. And even then, given the structural problems in Germany, real gross domestic product is only expected to increase by 1 % in 2025. “Against the backdrop of the worsening labor shortage, the potential for future growth will remain limited beyond 2025,” says Prof. Dr. Michael Berlemann, Scientific Director of the HWWI. In his opinion, the greatest opportunities for easing this restriction lie in digitalization, the increased use of artificial intelligence and the automation of activities, both in the corporate sector and in public administration.

19.01.2024|News from the Institute

HWWI moves into new office space

At the beginning of the new year, the HWWI moved from Oberhafenstraße to Hamburg’s city center. You will now find us just a few meters away from City Hall and the Chamber of Commerce at Mönkedamm 9 (20457 Hamburg).

At the beginning of the new year, the HWWI moved from Oberhafenstraße to Hamburg’s city center. You will now find us just a few meters away from City Hall and the Chamber of Commerce at Mönkedamm 9 (20457 Hamburg).

07.02.2024|News from the institut

Signing of the cooperation agreement between the HWWI and the Leibniz University of Applied Sciences

Leibniz University of Applied Sciences Hanover and the Hamburg Institute of International Economics have signed a cooperation agreement. In future, the partners intend to work together in the areas of research, training young talent and transfer. Plans include joint research projects, the invitation of guest... Read more

Leibniz University of Applied Sciences Hanover and the Hamburg Institute of International Economics have signed a cooperation agreement. In future, the partners intend to work together in the areas of research, training young talent and transfer. Plans include joint research projects, the invitation of guest researchers and support for doctoral training at Leibniz FH by the HWWI. In addition, Leibniz FH students will also have the opportunity to complete internships at the HWWI.

On the HWWI

Hamburg World Economic Institute (HWWI) is an independent, privately financed economic research institute. In addition to the headquarters in Hamburg, the HWWI has a branch in Bremen. It is organized as a non-profit GmbH; the only shareholder is the Hamburg Chamber of Commerce. HWWI closely cooperates with Helmut Schmidt University/University of the Armed Forces Hamburg (HSU).