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05.06.2025|New HWWI-Forecast

2025 economic turnaround, 2026 upturn of 1 1/2 %

The German economy grew surprisingly significantly in the first quarter of this year, by 0.4%. As some one-off effects favoured this development, the second quarter is likely to be weaker. In the meantime, a new government is in office. The Union had announced comprehensive economic reforms. However, it remains to be seen to what extent... Read more

The German economy grew surprisingly significantly in the first quarter of this year, by 0.4%. As some one-off effects favoured this development, the second quarter is likely to be weaker. In the meantime, a new government is in office. The Union had announced comprehensive economic reforms. However, it remains to be seen to what extent the necessary measures to improve the location conditions can be implemented in the coalition with the SPD in view of partly different economic policy ideas. With clear reform decisions, the previous reluctance, especially among investors, is likely to dwindle.
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2025 economic turnaround, 2026 upturn of 1 1/2 %
Doctorate of Erik Haustein
10.07.2025|HWWI-News

Doctorate of Erik Haustein

It is with great pleasure and recognition that we also congratulate our colleague Erik Haustein on the successful completion of his doctorate. His outstanding scientific performance, commitment and curiosity have distinguished him throughout his doctoral studies. We are all the more pleased that he will... Read more

It is with great pleasure and recognition that we also congratulate our colleague Erik Haustein on the successful completion of his doctorate. His outstanding scientific performance, commitment and curiosity have distinguished him throughout his doctoral studies. We are all the more pleased that he will remain with our institute beyond his doctorate.
Tracking Chinese aid through China Customs
25.06.2025|New Publication

Tracking Chinese aid through China Customs

A new method using Chinese customs data on exported aid goods reveals shifts in China's foreign aid. During COVID-19, medical aid, especially masks and vaccines, surged, becoming globally distributed and initially less tied to recipient needs or political alignment. However, a beginning vaccine diplomacy from... Read more

A new method using Chinese customs data on exported aid goods reveals shifts in China's foreign aid. During COVID-19, medical aid, especially masks and vaccines, surged, becoming globally distributed and initially less tied to recipient needs or political alignment. However, a beginning vaccine diplomacy from 2021 onwards showed a renewed link between aid and both economic needs and political alignment.
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Doctorate of Marina Eurich
18.06.2025|HWWI-News

Doctorate of Marina Eurich

We congratulate our colleague Marina Eurich on successfully completing her doctorate, which honors her outstanding scientific work! We are pleased that she continues to enrich the institute with her knowledge and commitment.

We congratulate our colleague Marina Eurich on successfully completing her doctorate, which honors her outstanding scientific work! We are pleased that she continues to enrich the institute with her knowledge and commitment.
HWWI-Commodity Price Index Declines: Energy Prices Lead the Downturn
13.05.2025|HWWI-Commodity Price Index

HWWI-Commodity Price Index Declines: Energy Prices Lead the Downturn

After months of growth, the HWWI-Commodity Price Index recently recorded significant declines, driven by weak demand and geopolitical uncertainty. After rising continuously since October, the HWWI-Commodity Price Index recorded negative growth rates over the past three months (February: -1.4%, March: -4.6%, and April: -7.6%). As... Read more

After months of growth, the HWWI-Commodity Price Index recently recorded significant declines, driven by weak demand and geopolitical uncertainty. After rising continuously since October, the HWWI-Commodity Price Index recorded negative growth rates over the past three months (February: -1.4%, March: -4.6%, and April: -7.6%). As a result, the index stood 7.6% below the level of the same month in the previous year (as of 09 May 2025).
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Melting Opportunities: Technological Change and Labor Market Perspectives
15.04.2025|New Working Paper

Melting Opportunities: Technological Change and Labor Market Perspectives

This paper analyzes the impact of a technological shock on the labor market based on the spread of electric refrigerators in American households in the 1930s. This shock caused many ice dealers to go out of business or change jobs. The new jobs were often... Read more

This paper analyzes the impact of a technological shock on the labor market based on the spread of electric refrigerators in American households in the 1930s. This shock caused many ice dealers to go out of business or change jobs. The new jobs were often paid up to 12% less. The technological shock had intergenerational effects. Younger sons in particular had to make a compromise between participation in the workforce and school attendance, which led to a decline in school attendance rates.
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Hamburg Airport – Assessing Its Regional Economic Role
14.04.2025|New HWWI-Study

Hamburg Airport – Assessing Its Regional Economic Role

The aim of the study is to systematically illustrate the regional economic significance of Hamburg Airport. The focus is on the multiplier effects, which demonstrate the close sectoral interconnection between the airport and the Hamburg metropolitan region. Each euro of direct value added generated at... Read more

The aim of the study is to systematically illustrate the regional economic significance of Hamburg Airport. The focus is on the multiplier effects, which demonstrate the close sectoral interconnection between the airport and the Hamburg metropolitan region. Each euro of direct value added generated at the airport is associated with €2.3 in total value added within the metropolitan area. In addition, each job at the airport secures at least two jobs in the region. The analysis shows that the airport is a key economic driver beyond its role in air transport.
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Moment Matching for Bayesian Inference in the New–Keynesian Baseline Model
14.04.2025|New HWWI-Working Paper

Moment Matching for Bayesian Inference in the New–Keynesian Baseline Model

In applied macroeconomics, identification problems originate from the poorly defined mapping between a structural model and reduced-form parameters. Prominent estimation approaches like the Bayesian one, however, are characterized by a flat likelihood and/or a posterior distribution driven mainly by prior information. To alleviate identification issues,... Read more

In applied macroeconomics, identification problems originate from the poorly defined mapping between a structural model and reduced-form parameters. Prominent estimation approaches like the Bayesian one, however, are characterized by a flat likelihood and/or a posterior distribution driven mainly by prior information. To alleviate identification issues, we apply the approximate Bayesian computation method combined with the choice of specific moment conditions to a standard DSGE model. This estimation approach not only allows for circumventing high dimensional likelihood functions but also avoids parameter identification problems given the use of a bootstrap method.
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Research Areas

Economy & growth

Environment & Climate

Migration & Integration

Spatial Economics

Method Center

Focus topics

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Climate Change

Migration

Business Cycles

Tariffs
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Our regular events

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Economic Policy Forum

The HWWI Economic Policy Forum serves the exchange between science, politics, associations, companies and the interested public. As part of this series of events, scientists give presentations on a current economic policy topic in a generally understandable form. Afterwards there will be an open discussion, which can then be deepened with a reception.

Forum Economic Policy

Research Colloquium

Within the HWWI Research Colloquium we regularly invite national and international scientists to give guest lectures at HWWI and discuss their latest research results. The seminar therefore primarily targets scientists.

Research colloquium

On the HWWI

Hamburg World Economic Institute (HWWI) is an independent, privately financed economic research institute. In addition to the headquarters in Hamburg, the HWWI has a branch in Bremen. It is organized as a non-profit GmbH; the only shareholder is the Hamburg Chamber of Commerce. HWWI closely cooperates with Helmut Schmidt University/University of the Armed Forces Hamburg (HSU).

Hamburgische WeltWirtschaftsinstitut