Despite challenges such as the war in Ukraine, rising energy prices and persistently high inflation rates, the German labor market has proven to be relatively robust over the past two years. The fight against inflation by the European Central Bank (ECB) is currently shaping economic activity. At 2.2%, the inflation rate in March 2024 is expected to be close to the ECB’s target value of 2% (Federal Statistical Office, 2024). However, economic and political uncertainties are clouding Germany’s growth prospects. Only low economic growth of 0.25% is expected for 2024, underlining the subdued economic outlook (Hamburg Institute of International Economics, 2024).

To complement our team, we are looking for a PostDoc for the Business Cycle & Growth research area with immediate effect. We look forward to receiving your application. For more information, see open positions.

Following a 0.3 % decline in real gross domestic product in 2023, the Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) expects only limited recovery potential for the German economy in 2024 and 2025. In view of the difficult start to the year and the resulting depressed starting level, economic growth of only ¼ % on average is expected for 2024, even with a moderate economic upturn over the remainder of the year. However, even this assumes that the geopolitical conflicts do not escalate further. And even then, given the structural problems in Germany, real gross domestic product is only expected to increase by 1 % in 2025. “Against the backdrop of the worsening labor shortage, the potential for future growth will remain limited beyond 2025,” says Prof. Dr. Michael Berlemann, Scientific Director of the HWWI. In his opinion, the greatest opportunities for easing this restriction lie in digitalization, the increased use of artificial intelligence and the automation of activities, both in the corporate sector and in public administration.

Leibniz University of Applied Sciences Hanover and the Hamburg Institute of International Economics have signed a cooperation agreement. In future, the partners intend to work together in the areas of research, training young talent and transfer. Plans include joint research projects, the invitation of guest researchers and support for doctoral training at Leibniz FH by the HWWI. In addition, Leibniz FH students will also have the opportunity to complete internships at the HWWI.

Climate policy measures urgently need public support in order to be implemented successfully, mainly because environmental policy is usually associated with short-term costs, while its benefits often only accrue in the future. The paper shows that the experience of severe heat waves, tropical storms and floods is causing dissatisfaction with current environmental policies among citizens worldwide. Accordingly, climate-related natural disasters, which will either occur more frequently or increase in severity as a result of global warming, could make a significant contribution to increasing public demand for more effective environmental and climate policy. However, the effect is only temporary.