Business Cycles
Here you find a compilation of HWWI publications, projects, events and press releases on the topic of Business Cycles.
Publications
Press Releases
New HWWI Business Cycle Forecast
According to initial data from the Federal Statistical Office, the German economy started 2024 with a small plus, but the initial situation has not fundamentally changed as a result. On the one hand, the Federal Statistical Office has revised the fourth quarter of 2023 and thus the “statistical overhang” downwards, and on the other hand, the increase in the first quarter is not least due to a weather-favoured increase in the construction industry, which is actually crisis-ridden. In view of the structural problems that have not yet been resolved, the Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) therefore expects only a moderate upturn for the German economy in 2024 and 2025 and economic growth of only 1/4% and 1% on average.
HWWI-Commodity Price Index shows rising trend again
After the HWWI-Commodity price Index trended downwards in the last reporting period (November to January), the index also fell in February, reaching a local minimum of 166.2. Since then, the index has increased slightly again by 4.1% in March and 5.7% in April compared to the previous month. In April, the index averaged 182.9, which is still 4.9% below the level of the same month last year (as of 05/05/2024).