Business Cycles
Here you find a compilation of HWWI publications, projects, events and press releases on the topic of Business Cycles.
Publications
Press Releases
New HWWI-forecast
According to the latest figures from the Federal Statistical Office, the German economy performed better in the first half of this year than geopolitical burdens and the negative mood in this country would have expected; the price- and seasonally adjusted gross domestic product increased by 0.75% in this period and by 1.5% on an annual basis. At the same time, important reform projects – such as the health care reform (in force), a pension reform and a tax reform (both as a draft) – were launched. In addition, several economic and climate indicators have improved; however, the positive change in sentiment expressed here is not always reflected in public opinion. Apart from this, the continued weakness in private investment activity illustrates the continuing need for structural reforms.
New HWWI-forecast
After a good start to this year for the German economy, the outlook for growth and inflation has deteriorated significantly since the end of February due to the Iran war, in particular the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the associated increase in energy prices. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is now lasting longer than initially expected. The erratic US tariff policy is also noticeably dampening German export activities. However, the mood in the economy has also been affected by home-grown problems, especially because the reform process is progressing slowly and has been overshadowed by disagreements within the coalition government. The further development of the Iran conflict is unclear, and the upcoming reforms harbor potential for conflict. Even if the Strait of Hormuz will soon become passable again and oil and gas prices will fall, the increase in energy prices will continue to have an impact for some time. And the subdued mood among investors and consumers is likely to cause restraint for the time being. Only government consumer spending and fiscal programs for infrastructure and defense provide impetus. Under these conditions, the German economy is likely to grow by just under 3/4% this year. In 2027, with an end to the Iran war and a more consistent reform policy, real gross domestic product could grow by 1 1/4%.