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HWWI Forecasts

HWWI forecast, Winter 2025

Michael Berlemann, Jörg Hinze (2025),
HWWI Forecasts, No. 4/2025, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.

The German economy is waiting for the economic turnaround. As in the first half of 2025 overall, real gross domestic product stagnated in the 3rd quarter. A difficult international environment and a so far only tentative implementation of reforms by the new government – overshadowed by recurring disruptions within the coalition – continued to slow down economic development. However, following the settlement of the tariff issue with the USA and the gradual implementation of fiscal spending programmes and support measures, the economic climate should improve. This should be reflected in the corresponding statistics in the last months of this year, but especially from next year, especially in the case of investment in construction and equipment. Government and private consumption will also continue to support the economy. Only the balance of exports will have a negative effect with only weak exports and stronger growth in imports. For 2025, the HWWI continues to expect economic growth of 0.2% on an annual average. With increased economic momentum as a result of the fiscal programmes and support measures, economic growth of 1 1/2% is then expected for 2026 and 2027, especially as more working days (2026 a total of 2 1/2 more than in 2025, another 1 1/4 more in 2027).