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Copper as an early indicator of economic development in Germany?
Lea Bernhardt, Ivan Sergio (2025),
Wirtschaftsdienst 105(8), 607–608.
Wirtschaftsdienst 105(8), 607–608.
This paper examines whether copper imports anticipate economic developments in Germany. A comparison with business expectations shows that firms tend to increase copper orders when anticipating rising demand. Copper prices and GDP also correlate positively with a delay of 1–3 quarters, reaching 0.296 after two quarters. Yet, large business climate shocks — e.g., in early 2022 — do not always translate proportionally into import changes due to other factors like inventories or supply disruptions.