
Refereed Articles
The Tale of the Donkey and the Elephant: An Estimated Optimal Fiscal Policy Rule for the US
Stephen Sacht (2022),
Applied Economics Letters 29, 4.
Applied Economics Letters 29, 4.
We derive an optimal fiscal policy rule that reflects the US government’s desire to reduce fluctuations in the output gap and the primary deficit in the post-World War II period. The results from Bayesian estimations show a lower weight on output gap stabilization under predominant democratic presidencies relative to republican ones. The opposite holds with respect to maintaining a zero primary deficit. Our time-consistent fiscal rule indicates a countercyclical government response to GDP fluctuations at all times.