Business Cycles
Here you find a compilation of HWWI publications, projects, events and press releases on the topic of Business Cycles.
Publications
Press Releases
HWWI-Commodity Price Index shows rising trend again
After the HWWI-Commodity price Index trended downwards in the last reporting period (November to January), the index also fell in February, reaching a local minimum of 166.2. Since then, the index has increased slightly again by 4.1% in March and 5.7% in April compared to the previous month. In April, the index averaged 182.9, which is still 4.9% below the level of the same month last year (as of 05/05/2024).
New HWWI Business Cycle Forecast
Following a 0.3 % decline in real gross domestic product in 2023, the Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) expects only limited recovery potential for the German economy in 2024 and 2025. In view of the difficult start to the year and the resulting depressed starting level, economic growth of only ¼ % on average is expected for 2024, even with a moderate economic upturn over the remainder of the year. However, even this assumes that the geopolitical conflicts do not escalate further. And even then, given the structural problems in Germany, real gross domestic product is only expected to increase by 1 % in 2025. “Against the backdrop of the worsening labor shortage, the potential for future growth will remain limited beyond 2025,” says Prof. Dr. Michael Berlemann, Scientific Director of the HWWI. In his opinion, the greatest opportunities for easing this restriction lie in digitalization, the increased use of artificial intelligence and the automation of activities, both in the corporate sector and in public administration.