The German economy continued to develop weakly in the winter half of 2024/25, as private consumers and companies continued to hold back in the uncertain run-up to the new elections in February 2025, and exports continued to decline. In the new election, the Union received the majority; it has announced comprehensive economic reforms – such as tax relief, lower energy costs, reduction of bureaucracy, infrastructure investments and a more efficient state. However, in the likely coalition with the SPD, the aforementioned measures are unlikely to be fully implemented in view of the sometimes very different economic policy ideas. Only after the coalition agreements are available is the reluctance of private consumers and especially investors likely to dwindle. In addition to the geopolitical uncertainties, there is the more restrictive trade policy of the new US administration; German exports to the USA are also threatened with tariffs. All this dampens the economic revival expected for the rest of this year. The Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) therefore expects an annual average increase in real gross domestic product of only 1/4% (previously 1/2%) for 2025, partly because of the negative overhang from 2024. Assuming that the future coalition can agree on important economic reforms and taking into account expected catch-up effects and a further easing of monetary policy, economic growth of 1 1/2% is still expected for 2026.

The HWWI-Commodity Price Index has recorded a significant increase in recent months, continuing its upward trend since October. In the three reporting months from November to January, the index rose by 1.3%, 1.4% and 4.9% respectively. In January, the index was therefore 14% higher than in the same month of the previous year (as of 5 February 2025).