The HWWI expects real gross domestic product to fall by 0.3% in 2023 if the weakness continues in the final quarter. The expected savings in the national budget following the Federal Constitutional Court ruling are likely to slow down the real recovery in the coming year. Economic growth of only ½ % is therefore expected for 2024. Only in 2025 – without further setbacks – is a somewhat more significant increase in real gross domestic product of 1% expected again.

Inflation has fallen significantly this year, from more than 8% at the beginning of the year to 3.2% recently. However, the noticeable rise in labor costs will slow down the further disinflation process. After an average inflation rate of 6% this year, the cost of living index is now expected to reach 2 ¾% in 2024. It will only approach the 2% mark again in the course of 2025.

The forecast assumes that the Middle East conflict and other geopolitical crises will not escalate further. Otherwise, a global economic crisis similar to previous phases of this kind would have to be expected, especially in view of the relatively weak global economy at present.