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The German Fuel Market in Spring 2026: Regional and Temporal Price Responses to the Middle East Conflict, Regulation, and Gas Station Rebates

Michael Berlemann, Lea Bernhardt, Hennes Meyer (2026),
ifo Dresden berichtet 33(05), 18-27.

This paper analyzes the effects of the Iran conflict (from February 2026), the 12 o’clock pricing rule, and the fuel price subsidy on the German retail fuel market. Using daily price data from approximately 15,000 stations, it examines price responses for E5, E10, and diesel by brand category and over time. Results indicate a sharp price increase following the supply shock, particularly for diesel, a narrowing of price dispersion across brands, and short-term price reductions from the fuel subsidy.

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Hennes Meyer