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28.08.2025|New HWWI-Forecast

Fiscal policy will give the German economy new impetus

The German economy stagnated overall in the 1st half of 2025; German gross domestic product fell by 0.3% in the second quarter, as it had risen in the first quarter. Special effects (bringing forward production and exports to the first quarter due to expected US... Read more

The German economy stagnated overall in the 1st half of 2025; German gross domestic product fell by 0.3% in the second quarter, as it had risen in the first quarter. Special effects (bringing forward production and exports to the first quarter due to expected US tariffs and mild winter weather) played a role in this, and the new government only took up its work in May and the economy initially waited for its reform plans.

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11.08.2025|New HWWI Commodity Price Index

HWWI Commodity Price Index remains at a stable level

After a significant decline in the first half of 2024, the HWWI Commodity Price Index has stabilised at a lower level since the summer. Since then, the index has fluctuated within a narrow range, with temporary increases, such as at the turn of the year,... Read more

After a significant decline in the first half of 2024, the HWWI Commodity Price Index has stabilised at a lower level since the summer. Since then, the index has fluctuated within a narrow range, with temporary increases, such as at the turn of the year, being corrected again. Price movements have been relatively stable in 2025 to date.

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07.08.2025|New Wirtschaftsdienst article

Copper as an early indicator of economic development in Germany?

This paper examines whether copper imports anticipate economic developments in Germany. A comparison with business expectations shows that firms tend to increase copper orders when anticipating rising demand. Copper prices and GDP also correlate positively with a delay of 1–3 quarters, reaching 0.296 after two... Read more

This paper examines whether copper imports anticipate economic developments in Germany. A comparison with business expectations shows that firms tend to increase copper orders when anticipating rising demand. Copper prices and GDP also correlate positively with a delay of 1–3 quarters, reaching 0.296 after two quarters. Yet, large business climate shocks — e.g., in early 2022 — do not always translate proportionally into import changes due to other factors like inventories or supply disruptions.

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17.07.2025|New HWWI-Study

Bremen's Boom or Bust? On the Impact of U.S. Tariff Policy on Bremen’s Economy

The present study examines how tariff measures introduced by the Trump administration are likely to affect Bremen’s economy, particularly the car sector. The findings indicate that the economic impact of the assumed U.S. tariff policy on Germany and Bremen would be negligible in both scenarios.... Read more

The present study examines how tariff measures introduced by the Trump administration are likely to affect Bremen’s economy, particularly the car sector. The findings indicate that the economic impact of the assumed U.S. tariff policy on Germany and Bremen would be negligible in both scenarios. The United States itself would face a deep recession. Positive effects on Bremen’s car industry depend on a high degree of trade integration with non-U.S. regions and, consequently, on a broadly diversified trade portfolio.

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25.06.2025|New Publication

Tracking Chinese aid through China Customs

A new method using Chinese customs data on exported aid goods reveals shifts in China's foreign aid. During COVID-19, medical aid, especially masks and vaccines, surged, becoming globally distributed and initially less tied to recipient needs or political alignment. However, a beginning vaccine diplomacy from... Read more

A new method using Chinese customs data on exported aid goods reveals shifts in China's foreign aid. During COVID-19, medical aid, especially masks and vaccines, surged, becoming globally distributed and initially less tied to recipient needs or political alignment. However, a beginning vaccine diplomacy from 2021 onwards showed a renewed link between aid and both economic needs and political alignment.

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05.06.2025|New HWWI-Forecast

2025 economic turnaround, 2026 upturn of 1 1/2 %

The German economy grew surprisingly significantly in the first quarter of this year, by 0.4%. As some one-off effects favoured this development, the second quarter is likely to be weaker. In the meantime, a new government is in office. The Union had announced comprehensive economic... Read more

The German economy grew surprisingly significantly in the first quarter of this year, by 0.4%. As some one-off effects favoured this development, the second quarter is likely to be weaker. In the meantime, a new government is in office. The Union had announced comprehensive economic reforms. However, it remains to be seen to what extent the necessary measures to improve the location conditions can be implemented in the coalition with the SPD in view of partly different economic policy ideas. With clear reform decisions, the previous reluctance, especially among investors, is likely to dwindle.

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13.05.2025|HWWI-Commodity Price Index

HWWI-Commodity Price Index Declines: Energy Prices Lead the Downturn

After months of growth, the HWWI-Commodity Price Index recently recorded significant declines, driven by weak demand and geopolitical uncertainty. After rising continuously since October, the HWWI-Commodity Price Index recorded negative growth rates over the past three months (February: -1.4%, March: -4.6%, and April: -7.6%). As... Read more

After months of growth, the HWWI-Commodity Price Index recently recorded significant declines, driven by weak demand and geopolitical uncertainty. After rising continuously since October, the HWWI-Commodity Price Index recorded negative growth rates over the past three months (February: -1.4%, March: -4.6%, and April: -7.6%). As a result, the index stood 7.6% below the level of the same month in the previous year (as of 09 May 2025).

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