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Experimentelle Aktienmärkte als Instrument der Konjunkturprognose

Michael Berlemann (2004),
ifo Schnelldienst 57(16), 21-29.

In the late 1980s, a new forecasting technique came into use: the organization of so-called “experimental stock markets”. This technique was initially used primarily in the area of election forecasting, but later it was also used in other areas, such as internal project monitoring or predicting the outcome of referendums. This article presents the basic idea of organizing experimental prediction markets and provides an overview of the empirical evidence available to date. The results show that experimental forecast markets can be a useful addition to existing forecast methods and are also suitable for forecasting key macroeconomic data. In this respect, they could represent a supplement to the traditional economic forecasting tools in the future.