Refereed Articles
Forecasting the ECB’s main refinancing rate. A field experiment
Michael Berlemann (2009),
Economics Letters 99(2), 379-383.
Economics Letters 99(2), 379-383.
When no appropriate markets to derive expectations on economic variables are available surveying methods are often employed. However, surveys suffer from the problem of how to aggregate individual expectations in a reasonable manner. We show at the example of a market on the ECB’s main refinancing rate that experimental markets aggregate information quite efficiently and thus are a useful tool in this respect.