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Refereed Articles

Forecasting the ECB’s main refinancing rate. A field experiment

Michael Berlemann (2009),
Economics Letters 99(2), 379-383.

When no appropriate markets to derive expectations on economic variables are available surveying methods are often employed. However, surveys suffer from the problem of how to aggregate individual expectations in a reasonable manner. We show at the example of a market on the ECB’s main refinancing rate that experimental markets aggregate information quite efficiently and thus are a useful tool in this respect.