Press Releases
On this page you find an overview on our press releases since January 2023.
HWWI-Commodity Price Index remains volatile: US-Iran MoU provides only temporary relief
In recent months, the HWWI-Commodity Price Index has shown strong volatility. In May, the total index recorded a further increase of 2.4 %. The following month brought temporary relief as the index fell noticeably by -9.2 % in June. Here, the negotiated US-Iran MoU is likely to have eased market tensions. However, this stabilization did not last: driven by the renewed resurgence of the conflict, prices picked up again by 2.2 % in July. Despite the intermittent fluctuations and the decline in the early summer, the markets reflect the ongoing geopolitical risks: in July, the overall HWWI-Commodity Price Index remained a significant 19.6 % higher than the corresponding figure for the previous year (as of August 17, 2026).
New HWWI-forecast
After a good start to this year for the German economy, the outlook for growth and inflation has deteriorated significantly since the end of February due to the Iran war, in particular the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the associated increase in energy prices. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is now lasting longer than initially expected. The erratic US tariff policy is also noticeably dampening German export activities. However, the mood in the economy has also been affected by home-grown problems, especially because the reform process is progressing slowly and has been overshadowed by disagreements within the coalition government. The further development of the Iran conflict is unclear, and the upcoming reforms harbor potential for conflict. Even if the Strait of Hormuz will soon become passable again and oil and gas prices will fall, the increase in energy prices will continue to have an impact for some time. And the subdued mood among investors and consumers is likely to cause restraint for the time being. Only government consumer spending and fiscal programs for infrastructure and defense provide impetus. Under these conditions, the German economy is likely to grow by just under 3/4% this year. In 2027, with an end to the Iran war and a more consistent reform policy, real gross domestic product could grow by 1 1/4%.
Sharp increase in the HWWI Commodity Price Index following the Iran war
Over the past three months, the HWWI Commodity Price Index showed strong volatility. Following a decline of -2.4 % in February, the index rose by 28.1 % in March 2026 after the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. In April, the index stabilised (-0.6 %), but still remained 27.7 % above the corresponding value of the previous year (data as of 04.05.2026).
